Pause in Selic gains strength in Copom bets and rekindles interest in public bonds
Options traded on B3 point to a 60.90% chance of maintaining the Selic rate at 13.75% per year at the meeting on November 3 and 4.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM SEU DINHEIRO · 2 MIN
Five consecutive Selic cuts may not be continued at the next Copom meeting. According to Seu Dinheiro, the Copom options negotiated on B3 until October 27th indicate a 60.90% chance of maintaining the rate at 13.75% per year. The decision is scheduled for November 3rd and 4th, and the break already appears as the most likely outcome among the bets.
The change in reading is relevant because, until Friday, October 23, the market's view was of new cuts, according to the same vehicle. The inversion occurred before the results of the presidential election, which repositions the debate on interest rates. For those who invest, the central question became how long the base rate should remain at its current level.
With high interest rates, public bonds once again gained attention. According to InfoMoney, the Treasury IPCA+ returned to investors' radar. After the second round, fixed income rates rose, and Tesouro Direto remunerations began to be considered attractive, according to the same publication.
Gustavo Bertotti, head of Variable Income at Fami Capital, assesses that the scenario favors new allocations in public bonds, especially those indexed to inflation. When questioned, he responded affirmatively about directing new contributions to Tesouro Direto, according to a report by InfoMoney.
The report also raises the doubt of exchanging real estate funds for fixed income, at a time when public bonds have become more competitive. There is no single answer, because the decision depends on the profile and objectives of each investor.
What changes for the investor
If the Selic remains stable for longer, fixed income tends to maintain high remunerations, which increases the opportunity cost of higher risk assets, such as shares and FIIs. For the investor, it is worth carefully comparing the return on public bonds, especially those indexed to inflation, with what each portfolio delivers. This article does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation or price forecast. The movement will depend on the outcome of the November meeting and the scenario that emerges after it.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
