Focus, Copom and Itaú's balance sheet lead Tuesday's trading session after All Souls' Day holiday

The Brazilian market resumes operations this Tuesday (11/3), after the All Souls' Day holiday, with three focuses of attention for those who follow interest rates, the dollar and the stock market: the Focus Bulletin, the start of the Copom meeting and Itaú's quarterly balance sheet. According to InfoMoney, B3 was closed on Monday (2/11), and this week's Focus is the first survey after Lula's re-election, with expectations of a strong worsening in the projections of the main indicators.

The Copom also begins a two-day meeting this Tuesday. According to the Copom options negotiated on B3, closing on Thursday (29/10), maintaining the Selic appears with a probability of around 70%, and a cut of 0.25 percentage points, with around 30%, according to InfoMoney. Interest contracts, according to the same source, include residual bets on rising rates.

In the balance sheet, Itaú (ITUB4) publishes the results for the third quarter of 2026 after the close of trading on Tuesday, according to Seu Dinheiro. The Bloomberg consensus projects net profit of R$12.714 billion, an increase of 7% year-on-year, with a return on average equity (ROAE) of 23.8%, 0.5 percentage points above a year earlier. LSEG, cited by InfoMoney, points out slightly lower numbers: profit of R$12.6 billion and revenue of R$48.3 billion.

The result gains relevance because the sector lives with expanding credit and rising default rates. According to Seu Dinheiro, large banks are facing an increase in default rates while growing their credit portfolio, and competitors disappointed in the third quarter. For the investor, the discussion stops being just the size of the profit and starts to include the quality of what is being loaned.

The day's agenda, according to Exame, also features the reopening of trading after the holiday and FGV indicators. In other words, Tuesday's session brings together readings on interest rates, inflation expectations and Itaú's performance on the same day.

What changes for the investor

The possible effect focuses on three points. If Focus confirms the expected worsening, the interest rate curve may incorporate a more restrictive scenario, which weighs on assets sensitive to the Selic and tends to affect the exchange rate. If the Copom maintains the rate, as the options indicate, the decision tends to be read as consistent with what is already priced. Itaú's balance sheet works as a thermometer for the sector: profit close to consensus and default under control would support the solidity reading, while a worsening in credit quality would reinforce caution towards banks. This analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell and does not predict prices, as the outcome depends on data and decisions that have not yet been made.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.