Market is divided over Selic this Wednesday, and December remains open
Economist predicts a cut, but Exame points out the majority's expectation of maintenance at 13.75%, and Lara Resende's proposal on Selic has a bad impact among operators.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM MONEY TIMES · 3 MIN
The Copom meets on Tuesday (3) and Wednesday (4), and the decision on Selic comes out on Wednesday. According to Money Times, Lifetime's chief economist, Marcela Kawauti, predicts a rate cut at this meeting, but views the next step with caution, as the fate of December is still in doubt. The debate matters for those who invest in the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, because the trajectory of the Selic defines the cost of money in the country.
Not everyone shares this reading. Exame reports that the majority expectation is for the Selic to remain at 13.75%, and that the options traded on B3 indicate a 68.86% chance of the rate remaining as it is. Itaú and Warren also project maintenance, while Banco Inter is betting on a 0.25 percentage point cut.
For December, Kawauti conditions any new cut to the fiscal scenario, the behavior of the dollar and inflation expectations. If these expectations worsen, she assesses that the BC may not have room for the last cut of the year. In another report, the same Money Times summarizes the thesis that the Copom should maintain rates and pause cuts in the next meetings.
Another point that entered the conversation is a text by André Lara Resende, formulator of the Plano Real. According to Money Times, the author suggests a new formula for the Selic, with a ceiling linked to inflation and growth. Operators read the proposal as a possible interest rate adjustment, and the reading displeased investors.
In the trading session, the Ibovespa in dollars rose on Tuesday (3), on a day marked by the volatility typical of the turn of the month and the adjustment of portfolios, according to the same vehicle. The movement precedes a decision that divides the projections and leaves the BC's signaling for the next meetings in the center of attention.
What changes for the investor
Selic is the reference for the cost of credit, fixed income remuneration and the relative attractiveness of shares and other risk assets. Therefore, maintenance, a cut or a signal about December tend to change the market's reading of interest rates and exchange rates. Doubts about the last cut of the year and the repercussion of the tabulation proposal make the Copom statement and inflation expectations central points for those who operate. This article does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation and does not project quotations.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
