Trump has difficulty convincing voters that the economy is doing well, says Bloomberg editor

President Donald Trump is facing difficulty convincing voters that the economy is strong, amid rising fuel prices and concerns about the cost of living, which are weighing on his popularity, including among Republicans. The assessment is from Wes Kosova, senior executive editor at Bloomberg News, in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

According to Kosova, the message is difficult to sustain because Trump was elected largely because he promised to help reduce prices. The economy, he said, was the basis of his campaign. Now, in the editor's opinion, it is possible to draw a direct line between some of the president's policies and high prices. Even voters who hear the president say that the economy is doing very well, including Republicans, don't feel this in their own pockets.

Dispute in republican states

In the final weeks of the campaign, Trump has been visiting states where Republicans don't normally need to defend themselves, such as Alaska and Kansas, as well as several trips to Texas. For Kosova, this indicates that the president is trying to convince his own electorate, as Democrats would not vote for him anyway.

Polls, according to the editor, show growing doubts among voters who gave Trump a wide margin in Republican states. The president's overall popularity has fallen, and approval of his handling of the economy has also declined among his own supporters. Kosova noted that some of these states are starting to lean Democratic. The Republicans' fear, he said, is not so much about switching sides, but about abstaining.

Fuels, war and promises of relief

Kosova stated that gasoline prices rose by around 39% and linked the increase to the war in Iran, which, in the editor's words, was started by Trump. The president, according to him, has said that oil companies are making a lot of money, an argument that hardly reassures the American consumer.

At the same time, Trump promises a $5,000 "dividend" that, by most estimates cited by Kosova, would cost about $1 trillion. The president would call it a pittance. There is also a credit of US$8 billion in diesel for farmers, hard hit by the rise in fuel prices. It is not known where the money will come from, Kosova said, but ultimately the taxpayer is the one paying. In the editor's opinion, it will be an issue to be addressed by the next Congress. The presenters recalled that the markets have been focusing, in recent months, on the increase in the deficit.

As for recent measures, such as the release of diesel with red dye and a controversial diesel deal with Russia, Kosova said the effect on the economy is likely to be small, if any. Oil and diesel prices are set on global markets and the measures do not appear large enough to compensate for larger forces, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and its repercussions on international energy prices.

Regarding voter mood, Kosova cited the rule of thumb that people form their expectations about the economy about six months before the election. For him, it is difficult to change this perception in recent days with a credit or the promise of US$5,000, and the polls, with the accuracy caveats he himself made, do not indicate that these ads are changing the vote.

Trump says it's "short-term pain for long-term gain" and that prices will plummet when the war ends. According to Kosova, it is the same argument used since the beginning of March, when the conflict proved to be longer than the president expected. The original expectation, he said, was for a quick operation, similar to that in Venezuela. The drop in oil after the end of the war is reasonable to assume, he assessed, but it remains to be seen how long it will take for the strait to reopen and for other factors to adjust. With no end in sight to the conflict, he concluded, the promise does little to reassure voters, who want to know when the war ends.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.