Dana Perino calls Iowa poll 'outlier' and urges caution ahead of midterm elections

Fox News host Dana Perino said a recent poll in Iowa was "a complete outlier" and that voters should wait for the actual results of the midterm elections before drawing conclusions. The statement was made on the Jesse Watters Primetime program, in a conversation about Republicans' expectations for Tuesday's vote.

The program opened with a speech from the president of the Republican National Committee (RNC), according to which, if the Republicans show up in force at the polls, they will win. "I think we're going to shock everyone," said the leader, who said he saw a chance for the party to "challenge history."

Research and the historical norm

Presenter Jesse Watters recalled that a poll in Iowa even indicated Kamala Harris' victory by a huge margin, and that surveys are now circulating showing a Democratic candidate ahead of Mike Rogers by 13 points, in addition to another with an even greater advantage in another contest. He asked if it was a new case of déjà-vu.

Perino responded that he would not completely trust the Iowa poll. In her assessment, many polls are correct regarding the national direction: the party out of power usually does better in midterm elections, which, according to her, is in line with historical norms.

What was not in the historical norms, the presenter argued, was a President Donald Trump who spent the last six weeks doing "everything he could" on the campaign trail. According to Perino, this left some disputes close that would be uncertain bets or slightly inclined to one side. She said at this point, the polls don't matter.

Michigan, Alaska and the Democratic internal dispute

Perino also commented on the Democratic scenario in Michigan. According to her, many Democrats said, in public and behind the scenes, that they did not necessarily want Abdul El-Sayed to win, because they feared long-term damage to the party. In the presenter's opinion, if candidate Haley Stevens (mentioned only as "Stevens" in the transcript) had won the primary, the conversation would be different. She also stated that Chuck Schumer, who wanted Stevens as a candidate, now sees himself tied to El-Sayed.

Perino said he believed Democrats were counting on Michigan to achieve a Senate majority and that the road was always going to be difficult. This is an analysis by the presenter, and not data confirmed by research or results.

In the final section, Watters and Perino dealt with a dispute in Alaska, where, according to Perino, the polls are not close. She said Tuesday night could be long and asked for patience from those following the investigation, as not all results will be clear early.

What to watch out for

The central message of the program is caution: neither the research nor the first results should be read as definitive. For the investor, the practical point is that the composition of Congress, defined as of Tuesday, influences the fiscal and tax agenda, a topic that, according to the transcript, was not detailed in the conversation. Perino's analysis reflects the vision of the channel and its presenters, and not an official result.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.