Democrats win governorships in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia and upset Texas, in an election that signals a setback for Trump

The Democrats won significant victories on Tuesday's election night and, in a result that surprised even analysts, turned Texas around: according to Fox Business coverage, Democrat Gina Hinojosa defeated Republican governor Greg Abbott, who ends a 12-year career in office, and Democrat James Talarico beat Republican Ken Paxton in the race for Senate.

According to reporter Alex Hogan, the night saw a series of firsts in disputes for state governments. In Iowa, Democrat Rob Sand defeated Zach Lahn and is expected to flip the state for the first time since 2010. In Ohio, Amy Acton will be the first woman to govern the state, after beating Vivek Ramaswamy. In Georgia, the broadcaster reported that the winner will be the first black governor elected in the country.

The Republicans also had a historic victory, according to the report. In Florida, Representative Byron Donalds will succeed Ron DeSantis and has promised to reduce costs, lower insurance premiums and grow the state's economy. The contrast with Texas, however, dominated the broadcaster's analysis.

What explains the turnaround in Texas

Researcher Justin Wallin assessed, in an interview with the program, that Texas was the biggest surprise of the night and that the change "cannot be overestimated". In his assessment, Talarico benefited from the vote of young people and Hispanics, and the entire Texas-Mexico border came under Democratic control.

Wallin said the result leads back to President Donald Trump, whose approval rating on the economy he said fell to 29% from 52% when he left office. He noted that both parties are viewed with similar disdain by voters and that the result does not represent a mandate for Democratic policies, but rather, in his words, a "resounding rejection" of what voters received in the first two years of the Trump administration.

Cost of living and rural voters

Presenter Cheryl cited surveys from the end of 2026 according to which between 74% and 84% of voters considered the economy and cost of living decisive for their vote. Based on Fox News polling of voters, she said rural voters, who backed Trump by 28 points in 2024, gave Democrats a 10-point edge this time. Rural, Hispanic, young and independent people who voted for Trump in 2024 flocked to the Democratic ticket.

For Wallin, the decision to go to war with Iran in February this year put pressure on the prices of gasoline, diesel and energy and reached the supermarket. He called the effect a "de facto tax" multiplied among rural voters. The president, in turn, stated that part of the scenario is due to Iran and that the country cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon.

The analyst also pointed out a difference in perception: although Republicans are associated with Wall Street, the majority of Americans have retirement plans invested in the market, but look at day-to-day domestic costs, and the stock market would be irrelevant to the prosperity that, according to him, has worsened in the last two years.

What changes for the investor

For the next two years, Wallin projected little legislative productivity: with Congress divided and the president with veto power, the expectation is for an impasse. For the investor, this tends to reduce the chance of major changes in taxes and public spending, a sensitive topic for those who follow interest rates, the dollar and the stock market, although the transcript does not include market projections.

The researcher also said that if Democrats insist on a progressive message, it could hurt them, and that if Republicans are unable to change voter perceptions about prosperity, the 2028 race will be wide open.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.