Democrats took Congress. Your stop remains where it was.

Speak up, gang! On Tuesday I wrote here that the market doesn't vote, it reacts. The count ended in the early hours of the morning and the message from the polls came stronger than many people imagined: the Democrats took the House and the Senate.

The numbers, according to Revista Oeste. In the Senate, the party reached 54 of the 100 seats and took seven that belonged to the Republicans. In the Chamber, it turned over 25 seats in more than ten states and reached 228, easily over the majority's 218.

And there was a turnaround where few people were betting. Money Times reports that Kansas elected a Democratic senator for the first time since the Great Depression. In South Carolina, which Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024, his Senate candidate lost. Texas and Iowa also had Democratic victories.

What changes in Washington

From reading Money Times, the war against Iran, the cost of living and dissatisfaction with the government weighed heavily. The practical effect is easy to understand: from now until the end of his term, whatever Trump wants to approve in Congress will depend on negotiation. Tax, spending, regulation. Nothing passes the scream.

For the market, the question has changed. Before, it was what the government was going to approve. Now it's what gets off the ground. And uncertainty, you know, takes its toll before any vote.

The certainty of the cell phone

On days like this, all kinds of certainty arrive on your cell phone. One guarantees that a divided Congress is great for the stock market. Another guarantees that this is the beginning of the fall. I'll be honest: I don't know. No one knows for sure, and so far there has not even been a firm indication of the assets' reaction to discuss.

What I know is what usually happens to those who operate the headline. Enter the first strong candle because "it's obvious" where it's going. The price moves a little, gives everything back, and the stop that was in the right place becomes a stop pushed away. I've seen this film many times.

We are a CPF against institutions. Large funds can spend days repositioning portfolios based on this result, with more information and more capital than us. Wanting to predict the end of this movement in the first hour of trading is a lack of humility towards the market.

How do I get to the opening

My script doesn't change because of the election. Loss limit defined before opening the platform, target defined as well. Hit one of the two, the screen turns off. No desire to recover.

Then, I wait for the Confirmation Clock to give me the status. If it doesn't work, there's no trade, no matter how much noise there is in the news.

And today there is one more detail: here in Brazil the Copom decision is still out. Two heavy issues on the same day increase the chance of sudden movement for both sides. Light hand and armored mind.

What will I follow

In the coming weeks, what matters is which projects are underway in both Houses and how the White House responds to this new balance. This is what will affect the expectation of taxes, spending and, ultimately, interest. And interest rates directly affect the Nasdaq.

Until then, work is as usual: protect capital and only operate what the chart confirms.

Election changes the scenario. The game rules remain the same.

Trading is not gambling. It's a profession.

Transparency notice: this column is written by Estéfano Santos, from X-Trader Academy, the company that maintains The X-Trader News. The text is informative and educational in nature and does not constitute investment advice.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.