Democratic victory in US Congress shakes New York's future

According to the InfoMoney report, the midterm election placed the US House and Senate under Democratic dominance, in a result that the article associates with the rejection of Donald Trump's administration. On Wednesday (4), New York futures rose, with Nasdaq futures up 0.60%, according to X-Trader.

The dispute scheduled for November 3 puts 435 seats in the Chamber and 35 of the 100 in the Senate at stake. Today, Republicans control both houses, and Trump appears to have low popularity, according to InfoMoney. Democrats also won several state governorships, expanding the party's presence outside of Washington.

Early voting continues, and the cost of living is voters' main complaint, with gasoline at the center of the debate, according to the same report. It is an issue that directly affects the budget of American families and, therefore, weighs on the political interpretation of the result.

In the market, a cautious reading prevails. Investors see this result as a factor that could weigh on the stock markets and the dollar, especially due to fear of stricter regulatory oversight of large technology companies and AI companies that grow at a rapid pace, according to InfoMoney.

Oil was also a protagonist. According to X-Trader, WTI fell 4.36% after Iran proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Times Brasil recorded Brent at US$108.38 per barrel, down 4.5%, and WTI at US$99.31. Also according to X-Trader, the dollar remained stable at R$5.44 and the Ibovespa opened November with a drop of 0.75%.

At the close of Monday (2), according to Times Brasil, S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.8% and Dow Jones futures gained 310 points (+0.6%). The 10-year Treasury was at 4.911%, down 0.023 points, and the VIX was at 18.95. The same source cites technology weighing on the market and October closing in the red, and remembers that the week brings balance sheets, such as Apple's, employment data and the election itself.

Impact for those who invest

The central point is whether Congress's new configuration translates into tougher rules for big tech and artificial intelligence companies, precisely the segment that most sustains the recent rises in New York's indices. If regulatory scrutiny advances, growth stocks with high valuations tend to be the most sensitive, as the InfoMoney reading already suggests. For the dollar and Ibovespa, the channel is the same: the perception of risk regarding the economic agenda for the coming years. The sources consulted do not detail which tax or regulatory proposals are on the table, so the extent of this effect still depends on definitions that only the new Congress can provide.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.