The 2027 Budget Rapporteur remains with Braga, and the surplus remains far from the central target

According to Gazeta do Povo, the person who will lead the 2027 PLOA as general rapporteur is senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM). The choice was announced by senator Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP) after a meeting of leaders on Tuesday (3). The decision defines who conducts the analysis of a proposal that reaches Congress with fiscal targets far from the center of the goal.

In addition to commanding the MDB bench in the Senate, Braga remains close to Alcolumbre, according to the same publication. When dealing with priorities, he highlighted health, education, infrastructure and security. According to O Antagonista, the Executive presented the 2027 LOA project to the Legislature on August 31, but the LDO of the same year still needs to be approved first. Both are screened by the CMO.

The most sensitive point is in the numbers. According to Gazeta do Povo, the LOA foresees a primary surplus of R$18.6 billion, around 0.1% of GDP, while the center of the target would be R$73.2 billion, or 0.5% of GDP. The calculations start from a Selic at 12.53% at the end of 2027, with an average dollar quoted at R$5.22. From the same source, 39.4% of court orders and RPV are included in the calculation of the primary target.

Also according to Gazeta do Povo, the rest of the proposal includes the fiscal budget plus the security budget, estimated at R$7.24 trillion, in addition to the investment budget for state-owned companies, of R$209.65 billion. This budget has a target primary deficit of R$7.56 billion, excludes Petrobras and ENBPar and foresees up to R$5 billion for the New PAC. In turn, the Golden Rule adds up to R$414.08 billion in inflows and outflows obtained through credit operations; To execute this amount, additional credit approved by an absolute majority is necessary.

On the political front, the vote was set as a target for December 17th, according to Estadão, which heard this date from Senator Teresa Leitão (PT-PE), leader of the government in the House. The government was awaiting the rapporteur's decision to send a modifying message, and it will be up to the CMO to define the schedule. According to the same newspaper, the proposal envisages relocating resources without increasing total expenses to cover the 15.04% adjustment of Bolsa Família, announced in September.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest in the stock market, interest rates and the dollar, the central item is the distance between the predicted surplus and the center of the target, because it shows how much the government needs to contain expenses or increase revenues to fulfill what was written. It is worth monitoring the relocation without increasing the total expenditure for Bolsa Família and the absolute majority requirement for the supplementary credit of the Golden Rule, as both indicate the degree of negotiation that Congress will have to face. The Selic and exchange rate assumptions are part of the LOA and may change during processing. For those who follow Petrobras, it is worth noting that the state-owned companies' investment budget excludes the company. None of this is a price forecast or recommendation: what the market should observe is whether Congress maintains, changes or expands the distance from the center of the target.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.