Trump says Republicans would have won handily if his name had been on the ballot

In a post early Wednesday morning on Truth Social, Trump wrote that the Republican Party would have achieved an "overwhelming" triumph in the midterm elections if his name had appeared on the ballot. According to InfoMoney, the statement was made while the investigation precisely showed Trump's defeat in the legislative elections.

The official result is much less favorable to the party. According to InfoMoney, the party lost its majority in the House of Representatives and also in the Senate, a change that alters the balance of forces in Washington.

The speech is, therefore, a hypothesis that cannot be tested, as there is no way to measure what would have happened with another ballot. It says more about the tone of the political debate than about what the polls showed.

Context helps to understand the defeat. A survey by the Associated Press, cited by InfoMoney, shows that midterm voters are very dissatisfied with the direction the country is taking and skeptical about what lies ahead. This picture suggests that the party's problem cannot be resolved just with the name on the ballot, but with voters' perception of the country's current situation.

For those who follow economic policy, the central point is the composition of Congress. Without a majority in the Chamber and Senate, any progress in fiscal responsibility or tax reductions will depend on more difficult negotiations, and each change of direction in public accounts tends to be disputed vote by vote.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest and operate, the point to observe is the progress of tax agendas. A divided Congress tends to delay votes on taxes and spending, and this type of uncertainty tends to be absorbed by the market little by little as negotiations progress. With the facts established, there is no basis for predicting the direction of assets such as the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates or the dollar. What investors can follow is the progress of proposals in Congress and the market's reaction to each relevant vote.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.