Under Lula, Finance reignites doubts about fiscal adjustment, points out O Antagonista

According to O Antagonista, in an opinion text, the Ministry of Finance of the next Lula government is a point of doubt for those who follow public accounts. The article starts from a debate on a text by André Lara Resende and gains weight after Lula's re-election for a fourth term, in an election in which Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) was defeated.

The text recalls that Fernando Haddad attempted a fiscal adjustment in November 2024, and that the dollar rose to R$6 in that period. Haddad also lost in the first round of the dispute for the governor of São Paulo to Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), according to the vehicle.

The name of Rafael Fonteles, re-elected governor of Piauí, appears as speculation for the federal Treasury. Upon reappointing Emílio Joaquim de Oliveira Júnior to the state Finance Secretariat, in his 4th term, Fonteles published “Viva o Equilíbrio Fiscal!!!”, recalls O Antagonista.

Henrique Meirelles, former president of the Central Bank, warned of the risk of recession in the next government if there are no adjustments, according to the text. He said that it is necessary to assess the minister's strength with Lula, which, according to the report, is the central point of the discussion.

The text also records positions contrary to the adjustment. Sérgio Gabrielli, Gleisi Hoffmann and Guilherme Boulos state that the government does not need fiscal adjustment. For O Antagonista, the decision on Finance policy rests with Lula, and not the minister.

The vehicle also retrieves the folder history. Antonio Palocci commanded the Treasury during the first Lula government, alongside Meirelles as president of the BC. Guido Mantega held the position in Dilma's government, reappeared in the 2022 transition and, according to the text, was the target of an attempt by Lula to place him as president of Vale, before moving on to Banco Master.

What changes for the investor

In general terms, doubts about the conduct of public accounts tend to appear in the exchange rate and in expectations for interest rates, variables that weigh on the stock market and sectors linked to credit. The text of O Antagonista does not provide new data on the budget or targets, and the discussion revolves around who decides economic policy. Therefore, investors tend to follow concrete signals from the government about fiscal targets and the composition of the economic team. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell and does not project quotes.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.