US makes limited attack on Iran's air defenses and considers resuming larger-scale military operations

US forces have carried out a limited attack on an Iranian air defense system, and President Donald Trump is weighing the next steps in a conflict that could escalate again. According to Fox Business, Trump says the decision will be made known soon and this week gathered his national security team to discuss another round of military operations.

Trump called the action minor. According to the president, Iran had set up a small anti-aircraft device, which was neutralized in about 15 minutes, maybe five. At the same time, US Central Command (Centcom) announced a task force to stop the shipment of weapons and materials to Iran by land. The State Department, in turn, offers up to $20 million for information about Iran's nuclear program.

The broadcaster also reported that several senior American officials met with Trump to discuss resuming operations. A note from the channel's team cited November 9th, the beginning of next week, as a date of interest, as it coincides with the new moon in the Middle East, that is, moonless nights.

Three paths, according to Keane

Retired four-star general Jack Keane, a senior strategy analyst for Fox News, said he did not participate in the meeting, but outlined three options before the president: reach a deal, maintain economic pressure in the hope that the regime collapses or relents, or return to large-scale combat operations to end the regime for good.

Regarding the agreement, Keane doubts that Iran will comply with it. In the general's assessment, the regime would receive money to rebuild itself and could tell the population itself that it resisted the United States and Israel. This, according to him, would empty the population and lead allies in the region to accommodate a regime that would maintain its power. Israel's survival, he said, would remain in question.

The limits of blocking

Regarding economic pressure, Keane called the blockade exquisite, but pointed out a flaw: seven countries border Iran, with 25 crossing points. According to the general, Tehran works with these neighbors, and China pushes goods via Pakistan, which he described as an accomplice. In the analyst's view, the Iranian economy may even collapse, but there will be enough money for the regime to maintain itself, as survival is the only thing that matters to it.

Therefore, he stated, economic pressure is only a good option combined with large-scale combat operations, which would create the conditions for collapse. Keane ruled out sending two armored divisions, as in Iraq, and exchanging power with paratroopers. He defended giving opportunities to groups within Iran who, according to him, want the end of the regime and are willing to take up arms.

Asked about the duration of a possible campaign, Keane said he hoped the discussion would not even reach that point and that no one was talking about a prolonged war. He argued that one should not inform the enemy about deadlines. According to the general, the objectives would be finite and would then depend on conditions, and Iran would react with force, causing casualties and damage, but without stopping the US.

What to watch out for

The transcription does not contain market data, and the analysis is of the channel and its guest, not a decision made. For investors, the central point is uncertainty: a resumption of larger-scale fighting or the maintenance of the blockade could change the risk environment, with possible impacts on energy, interest rates, the dollar and stock markets. For now, the president himself says that the definition will come soon.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.