Copom decides on Selic this Wednesday, and 16 of 21 institutions are betting on maintenance

The Copom meets this Wednesday (4/11) to define the direction of the Selic, currently at 13.75% per year. Money Times classifies the meeting as decisive for the market, and the majority expectation is that the rate will stay where it is.

Of the 21 institutions consulted by Money Times, 16 project the Selic rate to be maintained at 13.75%. The other five foresee a cut of 0.25 percentage points, to 13.50%. The minority is made up of XP Investimentos, BB Investimentos, Bradesco, Inter and ASA.

Even with the uneven score, the break is already considered certain by the market, according to Money Times. By the end of 2026, most expect the Selic to end the year at its current level, although projections for December vary from one institution to another.

The meeting falls on a day full of indicators. According to Money Times, today's agenda includes the ADP jobs report, October's IPC-Fipe, Caged and foreign exchange flow data. Seu Dinheiro adds the elections in the United States and Itaú’s balance sheet to the list. The payroll for Friday (6/11) is for later.

In the United States, the preliminary count of the midterm elections, the midterms, points to a Democratic victory in the House and Senate, according to Money Times. The scenario takes place under the presidency of Donald Trump. Seu Dinheiro recalls that the expression “lame duck” began to designate, in the USA, politicians at the end of their term or cycle, with reduced power. Its origins date back to 18th century England, when it referred to bankrupt investors who left the market. For those who operate Nasdaq and the dollar, the outcome of these elections is yet another piece of information that is part of the risk reading.

What changes for the investor

Maintaining the Selic rate, which is the majority's scenario, keeps the basic interest rate at a high level and preserves the attractiveness of securities linked to the rate, which tends to remain a reference for those comparing fixed income with variable income. A cut of 0.25 percentage points, defended by the minority, would reduce this difference in the short term and ease the cost of credit. As the pause is already considered certain by the market, what should weigh more is the tone of the Copom statement and what the projections for December reveal about the pace of the coming months. Those who follow the stock market, Nasdaq and the dollar should also observe Friday's payroll and the results of the midterms, which could influence risk appetite abroad.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.