Democrats take over the US House and Senate and Wall Street revises scenarios
Democratic victory in the midterm elections reduces the weight of radical wings, according to strategists, and could facilitate budget and debt negotiations.
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM INFOMONEY · 2 MIN
Democrats took control of the United States House and Senate on Tuesday (3/11/2026), in a midterm election that the market was following closely. According to InfoMoney, the majorities won by the party in both houses were above what the market expected in the weeks before the vote.
The result weighs more because it comes two years before the end of Donald Trump's second term, elected for that period two years ago. On the eve of the vote, at a rally in Kansas on Sunday (1/11), Trump said he expected two more years of Republican majority in both houses, an expectation that the polls did not confirm.
Reuters reports that Democrats won in Republican strongholds, something that hadn't happened in generations. The agency cites as factors in the defeat the unpopularity of the war against Iran, the high cost of living and dissatisfaction with the Trump administration.
Reports from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, released on Wednesday (4/11), were the main starting point for the review of scenarios on Wall Street. According to bank strategists, cited by InfoMoney, the result reduces the weight of radical Democratic wings and facilitates negotiation of the budget, debt ceiling and public spending. For those who follow public accounts, the central question is whether this negotiation actually progresses in Congress.
In the market, before the vote, X-Trader registered the dollar at R$5.48, Ibovespa stable at 167,910 points and the 10-year Treasury at 4.89%. In the opening trading session, the Nasdaq rose and the Dow fell.
What changes for the investor
The point of attention is what the result signals for American fiscal policy, and not a price forecast. If the strategists' reading is confirmed, the negotiation of the budget, debt ceiling and spending tends to be less blocked by radical wings, which could reduce some of the uncertainty about the US accounts. In this scenario, long interest rates and the dollar remain thermometers to monitor, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.89% and the exchange rate at R$5.48 used as a reference before voting.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
