Democratic turn in the US Congress puts Trump's agenda in check

The Democrats took most of the seats in the House of Representatives and also in the United States Senate, and Donald Trump's party no longer commands both Houses of Congress. According to Revista Oeste, the count began shortly after the first polling stations closed voting, at 8pm on the 3rd, a Tuesday, according to Brasília's clock, and the outcome was defined in the early hours of Wednesday, the 4th. For those who follow the markets, the change reduces the government's margin to move forward without negotiation.

In the Senate, the party won 20 parliamentarians and reached 54 of the 100 seats, adding seven seats that previously belonged to Republicans, according to Revista Oeste. In the lower House, 25 seats that were previously Republican changed hands in more than ten states, and the Democratic bench reached 228 deputies, above the absolute majority of 218. There were 435 seats up for grabs in the Chamber and 35 in the Senate.

According to Money Times, the victories came in traditional Republican strongholds, something that had not happened for generations. In Kansas, the congressman elected by the Democratic party is the first from the party to occupy the seat in almost a hundred years, since the economic crisis of the 1930s. In South Carolina, Trump's margin in 2024 was almost 18 points, but the Senate candidate he chose lost the race. Democrats also won Texas and Iowa.

The report attributes the turnaround to three factors: the war against Iran, considered unpopular, the high cost of living and dissatisfaction with the Trump administration. According to the text, tens of millions of voters voted against the president. The final size of the Democratic wave was still being defined at the time of publication.

On Wednesday the 4th, after the results were announced, Asian markets ended the session with opposite signals, without a common trend. For the market, the election is seen as a setback for Republican governance, with a tendency for more resistance in Congress to Trump's initiatives.

What changes for the investor

According to Money Times, the main consequence is the possibility of the government's agenda moving more slowly, as Executive projects tend to face more obstacles in the Legislature. Investors tend to look favorably on a divided Congress, a scenario in which the White House loses its majority in the Legislature and, therefore, the advancement of more radical measures becomes more difficult. Still, the real effect will depend on how the new balance of forces translates into concrete votes.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.