Public accounts out of control threaten credit and can make financing more expensive

In August 2026, the Union's gross debt already represented 82.9% of GDP, according to Gazeta do Povo, and this raised an alarm among economists. Analysts consulted estimate that, by the end of 2027, this index will reach 86.4% of GDP. The debate over how to fund the government's accounts is gaining momentum because Lula's new term should begin in November.

The report cites the fear that debt will exceed 100% of GDP by 2030 if fiscal policy does not change. According to the investigation, around 90% of what the Union spends is obligatory, and therefore changing the total quickly is difficult.

The most direct effect felt by citizens, when reading Gazeta do Povo, would be on credit. If the situation persists, banks may restrict loans to families and companies, and car and property financing tends to become more expensive. The same analysis associates the maintained high interest rates with the fiscal risk that investors see in the country.

Already in the market, according to the text, investors are asking for three guarantees: a fiscal adjustment plan, a team of economists that decides independently and firm support in the Legislature. The stock market had a recent negative reaction and the dollar rose, although the text does not provide values ​​for these movements.

Among the solutions pointed out by analysts interviewed by the report are reviewing the criteria for correcting the national floor, removing the mandatory linkage of health and education funds and placing a ceiling on parliamentarians' amendments. Lula, however, took a stand against changing these social rules during the campaign, which leaves the adjustment subject to a political clash.

The point of friction, therefore, is the distance between expenditure rigidity and the need to signal fiscal credibility. The longer this distance lasts, the greater the pressure on interest and credit tends to be.

Reflections on the portfolio

Those who invest in shares, rates and foreign currency need to monitor three points: the design of the fiscal plan, the profile and attitude of the Legislature and the behavior of the interest curve and the dollar. If the government presents an adjustment considered credible, the interest and exchange rate situation may change direction. If the impasse continues, the combination of more expensive credit and high interest rates tends to weigh on variable income, especially in sectors dependent on financing. Nothing here should be read as a suggestion to buy or sell assets, nor does the analysis make price projections.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.