Interest sustainability requires solid fiscal bases and responsibility

The discussion about the basic interest rate gained new contours after the Central Bank interrupted the Selic's downward trajectory, maintaining the rate at 13.75% per year, according to Estadão. The recent economic debate shows that artificially cutting rates without due structural support compromises the credibility of monetary policy.

As Estadão found, the Central Bank's inflation projection for the second quarter of 2028 rose to 3.5%, a level that exceeds the inflation target established at 3%. This deviation in expectations reinforces the diagnosis that price control requires caution and technical rigor in managing the economy.

The economic scenario was also marked by statements by André Lara Resende, identified as one of the formulators of the Real Plan, whose positions provoked intense public controversy, according to Estadão. The episode highlights the divergence between theoretical currents regarding the role of interest in combating inflationary pressures.

For analysts and defenders of fiscal responsibility, the episode demonstrates that the sustainable reduction of the basic rate depends strictly on the adjustment of public accounts and respect for fiscal rules, fundamental pillars for stabilizing prices and attracting investments.

What changes for the investor

In the market environment, the maintenance of the Selic rate at high levels and the upward revision in inflation projections alter the pricing of fixed and variable income assets. Operators and managers begin to reevaluate their allocation strategies in the face of uncertainty about the timing and sustainability of future cycles of monetary easing.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.