Oil rises on Iran war as investors eye Trump's electoral setback

Oil rose again this Wednesday (4). According to Money Times, at 4:30 am Brasília, Brent gained 0.18% and was quoted at US$ 103.80 per barrel. WTI rose 0.07% to US$96.16, reversing previous losses. The rise comes shortly after a fall in Brent in the previous session, when the contract closed at the weakest level in almost four weeks.

The backdrop is the war with Iran, which remains at the center of attention for those who follow energy. According to Money Times, investors are following Washington's next moves in the conflict and observing possible peace talks that would seek to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran.

According to Exame, Trump signaled on Monday (2) that an understanding with Tehran is viable. On the Iranian side, the government revealed that it is maintaining indirect negotiations with Washington. Both signs point to open channels of conversation, but, so far, there has been no agreement announced.

Domestically, the Democratic opposition began to command the US Congress after the legislative vote in the middle of the presidential term, breaking the Republican majority aligned with Trump, according to Money Times. For InfoMoney's Risk Map program, Trump's decisions on trade and the Middle East could be an obstacle for the Republican Party in the legislative elections. According to Ana Carolina Marson, professor at FESPSP in the area of ​​International Relations, the increase in tariffs combined with the conflict with Tehran made life more expensive for the population and increased discontent with the Trump administration.

The same dynamics appear in metals. According to InfoMoney, gold, in the December Comex contract, added 1.81% and ended Monday (2) quoted at US$ 3,969.60 per troy ounce. Silver, in turn, gained 3.27%, reaching US$50.888 per troy ounce.

In the macroeconomic scenario, the market awaits the US payroll at the end of the week and signals from the Federal Reserve on interest rates, also according to InfoMoney.

What changes for the investor

For those who follow commodities, the main risk factor remains the war in Iran. Advances in negotiations could ease the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil, while a stalemate or escalation tends to maintain this uncertainty in the price. The payroll and the Fed's speeches should influence interest rates and the dollar, variables that usually affect risk appetite in stock markets and growth assets, such as those linked to the Nasdaq. It is worth following this week's diplomatic news and economic calendar, without taking this scenario as a price forecast.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.