Dollar retreats against the real with Democratic victory in the USA and focus returns to Selic

The spot dollar operated lower against the real this Wednesday (4/11), returning part of the previous session's high. According to InfoMoney, at 9:12 am the American currency fell 0.34%, quoted at R$5.469 for sale. Outside the country, the American currency also lost strength after the Democrats won the election that renewed part of the US Congress, and the Brazilian exchange rate followed this movement.

In the futures market, the dollar contract for December registered a drop of 0.34%, trading at R$5.499 on B3. The DXY, an indicator that compares the American currency with a set of six foreign currencies, lost 0.36%, to 101,350 points. Today's decline comes after the 0.74% increase recorded on Tuesday (3/11), when the dollar in cash closed at R$5.4863.

In the domestic scenario, all attention is focused on the Central Bank's announcement on interest rates, which will only be released after the market closes business. The expectation for the Selic definition adds to investors' caution with the legislative vote in the United States, which keeps traders attentive to the exchange rate throughout the day.

Brazilian trading was also under pressure. On Tuesday (3/11), Ibovespa Futuro began to fall again after the All Souls' Day holiday. At 9:03 am, the contract marked a loss of 1.57%, quoted at 167,820 points. Before that, on Monday, a holiday on which B3 did not open, the Dow Jones Brazil Titans 20, which brings together the 20 largest Brazilian companies with ADRs, had already ended the session in the red.

The main pressure on the index came from Petrobras' ADRs (PBR/PETR3), which fell 4.04% in the American market. According to InfoMoney, the state-owned company was the negative highlight of the group and concentrated the weight of the fall on Titans 20.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest and operate, the message combines two fronts. On the one hand, the fall of the dollar against the real and in the index of six currencies shows that the exchange rate remains sensitive to American political news. On the other hand, the announcement of interest rates by the Central Bank, which will only be known after closing, tends to dictate the tone of the next trading sessions. Anyone exposed to ADRs should monitor these two variables closely. In this newspaper's editorial line, fiscal predictability and clarity about interest rates continue to be the best antidote to volatility, but this is not equivalent to an indication of buying or selling.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.