Copom decides Selic this Wednesday with majority betting on maintenance at 13.75%

The Central Bank announces this Wednesday (4) the decision on the Selic, currently at 13.75% per year. According to Money Times, the Copom meeting takes place on Tuesday (3) and Wednesday (4), and the day combines the definition of interest rates with indicators capable of shaking the exchange rate and the main B3 index. Revista Oeste also points out that the meeting starts on Tuesday and ends on Wednesday, the day of the announcement.

The majority bet is caution. According to Money Times, 16 out of 21 institutions project Selic to remain at 13.75%. On the other side, five houses, ASA, XP, Inter, Bradesco and BB Investimentos, are betting on a decline of a quarter of a point, taking the rate to 13.50%.

The reading for the rest of 2026 is similar. According to the same source, the dominant expectation is that interest rates will remain where they are until the end of the year, even if the forecasts for December do not coincide. The market is also working with the expectation of a pause in the pace of cuts in the next meetings.

Wednesday's agenda goes beyond Selic. Money Times lists the October IPC-Fipe, which measures consumer inflation in São Paulo, Caged and exchange rate flow data. Price, activity and employment indicators for the European bloc and the American economy are also on the radar, which keeps the exchange rate under observation on a day with many variables.

The week started with noise. According to Revista Oeste, the dollar rose and the stock market fell on Tuesday (3), after the All Souls' Day holiday on Monday (2). Money Times had pointed out, for Tuesday, the typical turbulence at the end of the month and the reorganization of portfolios.

The debate gained an extra component with the proposal from economist André Lara Resende, formulator of the Real Plan. He suggested a new formula for deciding the Selic, with a 'ceiling' linked to inflation and growth. According to Money Times, the market read the idea as a possible interest rate adjustment, which displeased investors. Revista Oeste reports that the suggestion went down well with members of the government, while the economic team rejects any plan to set interest rates. For those who defend fiscal responsibility and a predictable Central Bank, the issue goes beyond the decision number, because it touches on the rules that guide interest rates.

What changes for the investor

If the Copom maintains the Selic at 13.75%, as most expect, the basic interest rate will remain high for longer, which tends to keep applications linked to the rate attractive and weighing on sectors more dependent on credit. A cut, even a small one, would change the reading on the rate of loosening. In both cases, it is worth observing the tone of the statement and the price and vacancy numbers, as they can change bets for exchange rates and shares. The discussion about a formula for interest rates requires attention to predictability: if the market starts to see tabulation, risk pricing may demand a higher premium, with consequences for exchange rates and shares.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.