BC decision this Wednesday: interest rates should remain at 13.75%, and the statement weighs more

The Copom meeting this Wednesday (4) takes place with the Selic at 13.75% per year, and the dominant forecast is for maintenance. According to InfoMoney, the main trigger for investors should be the tone of the statement that the BC releases at the end of the meeting, more than the decision itself.

Money Times interviewed 21 institutions. Sixteen predict the Selic will stop at 13.75% per year, while five believe in lowering the rate by 0.25 percentage points, up to 13.50%. On the falling side appear ASA, Inter, Bradesco, BB Investimentos and XP. Most projections also maintain the Selic at 13.75% at the end of 2026.

The background weighs more than the number. According to InfoMoney, fiscal uncertainties and inflation above the target make up the scenario. In this context, the debate on André Lara Resende's proposals to reduce the structural cost of public debt gained ground, a topic that enters the discussion on the future of government accounts.

The meeting also competes for attention with other events. Wednesday's agenda, according to Seu Dinheiro, includes the elections in the United States, the Copom and Itaú's balance sheet. In the US, the midterm elections end on Tuesday, and Wall Street closed mixed the day before. Also according to InfoMoney, oil continued to fall, amid yet another American offensive against Iran, after a fall the day before, and Apple's quarterly earnings were disappointing, which worsened market sentiment.

For analyst Ryan Detrick, from Carson Group and contributor to CNBC, markets may calm down after the elections. Seu Dinheiro also reminds us that the expression 'lame duck', used for politicians at the end of their cycle with reduced power, originates in 18th century England, where it designated bankrupt investors.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest in the stock market, interest rates and the dollar, the central point is the market's reading of the statement. Maintenance accompanied by a sign of caution with inflation above the target could ward off bets on cuts and keep interest rates at a high level for longer. A softer tone could give more strength to the banks' bets that see a cut of 0.25 percentage points, affecting future interest rates and the exchange rate. In parallel, the American election, Itaú's balance sheet and oil movements could magnify or mitigate the effect of the decision. None of this guarantees direction for prices, and the final reading will depend on what the BC says.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.