Defeat in midterm elections opens dispute over military budget and US strategy in Iran

The unfavorable result for President Donald Trump in the midterm elections is already affecting the war against Iran and the budget debate in Washington. In an interview with Fox News' Fox & Friends First program, analyst Dan Hoffman assessed that the period ahead will be "tumultuous" and that the political division could favor the opponent.

According to the program, Iranian authorities try to use the result to their advantage. Iran's Parliament reportedly wrote that, concerned about the cost of living, Americans said no to war, and that the country endorses that message.

The Wall Street Journal editorial, cited by the presenters, questions Vice President JD Vance's approach to Iran after the election. For the newspaper, his emphasis on leaving the war is close to surrender and may have been designed to limit him. The editorial asks how Vance could continue as the main American negotiator with the Iranians.

Exit strategy and the Strait of Hormuz

Hoffman acknowledged that there is debate in Congress and the administration about the exit strategy and meeting the objectives. In his assessment, American forces are mobilized to guarantee the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran tried unsuccessfully to stop this flow, which would have returned to pre-war levels.

For the analyst, an American withdrawal would give Iran great control over its own "sphere of influence". He said the goals remain to deny Iran a nuclear program and bar support for allied terrorist groups. Hoffman also said he expects Congress to threaten the government with the power of the budget.

Asked whether the result would push Trump toward a deal, Hoffman said he did not believe Tehran wanted one. In his view, Iran intends to wait for the Americans to give up and believes it can resist economic pressure, while causing damage to Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia. The analyst cited attacks on critical energy infrastructure and Riyadh airport, and said Iran could gain the upper hand if the US backed down. He also recalled that the president has more room in foreign policy and that he will need to negotiate with influential Democrats, including on the intelligence committee.

US$1.5 trillion budget at risk

Host Cheryl noted that the House controls the budget and that the War Department is asking for $1.5 trillion, an amount that likely won't be approved after the election. Hoffman said he was following the topic and predicted intense negotiations in the coming days and weeks. According to him, some Democrats would accept releasing resources, but would demand compensation.

The analyst said Democrats may seek to remove Secretary Pete Hegseth as a precondition for approving any of the president's budget requests, something Trump may not want to do. For Hoffman, Iran knows that a divided government could undermine the effort to present a unified force, which represents a challenge for the White House.

The program also mentioned the arrival at the Capitol of more candidates supported by the DSA (Democratic Socialists of America), which raises doubts about the effect of this influence on American policy towards Israel. For investors, the clash over military spending and the continuation of the conflict weighs on US public accounts and the price of oil, variables that usually have an impact on interest rates, the dollar and stock markets. The evaluations described here are those of the analyst and the program.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.