Itaú profits R$12.6 billion in 3Q26, but falls below part of analysts’ projections

According to Seu Dinheiro, Itaú Unibanco's (ITUB4) recurring profit reached R$12.6 billion in 3Q26, an increase of 6.7% on an annual basis and 2.5% compared to the immediately previous quarter. The number, however, fell short of the market's estimate, which the publication placed at R$12.714 billion according to the Bloomberg consensus.

The reading is not unanimous. Bloomberg Línea shows that the result was in line with expectations compiled by the same institution, of R$ 12.63 billion, while recurring managerial profit reached R$ 12.617 billion, an increase of 6.2%. The two vehicles work with close values, but reach opposite conclusions about performance in relation to expectations.

Even in the most favorable version, the pace lost strength throughout the year. According to Bloomberg Línea, the expansion of recurring profit was 7.8% in the second quarter, after having reached 10.4% at the beginning of the year, and fell to 6.2% in the third. The report also raises an alert in the portfolio: the portion in arrears among micro, small and medium-sized companies (MSMEs) grew again in the period.

In the market, the bank's ADR on the New York Stock Exchange fell 0.14%, to US$7.04, after the close of regular trading, according to Bloomberg Línea. Before that, during regular trading, the stock had closed at US$7.05, down 1.67%.

The bank's performance contrasts with that of BB Seguridade (BBSE3). According to Money Times, the company recorded R$2.432 billion in recurring profit in the 3Q, a drop of 5.1% compared to a year earlier and a jump of 13% compared to the previous quarter. In nine months, accumulated profit reached R$6.804 billion, practically the same as the previous year, with a positive variation of 0.1%. The one behind the decline in the annual comparison was mainly Brasilseg: the result fell by R$101.2 million due to lower premiums won, a higher combined index and lower financial results, in addition to R$58.9 million less at BB Corretora.

In air transport, LATAM Airlines also grew in the period: according to Times Brasil, operating revenue reached US$4.567 billion, a gain of 18.4%, while net profit totaled US$441 million, an increase of 16.3%. For the year, the company revised its revenue expectation upwards, which should now be between US$ 17.6 and US$ 17.8 billion, and set the annual adjusted EBITDA in the range of US$ 3.9 to US$ 4.05 billion. On the other hand, fuel weighs heavily on cash: the average price rose 52.1% compared to the 3Q of 2025, and the effect is calculated at around US$520 million. Ricardo Bottas, the company's CFO, stated that this value only considers the price of fuel and does not include the greater consumption associated with the expansion of the network.

The data set shows a scenario in which the revenue of a company exposed to fuel costs grows strongly, while, in the financial sector, the discussion focuses on the quality of credit and the sustainability of results.

What changes for the investor

For those who follow Itaú, the most relevant data is less the full number for the quarter and more the trajectory: the slowdown in profits throughout 2026 and the increase in delays among MSMEs are the points that the market tends to observe in the next balance sheets. With divergent readings on the consensus, the share remains sensitive to the perception of the quality of the credit portfolio, and the available data does not allow us to estimate the direction of prices. The comparison with BB Seguridade and LATAM also indicates that the performance of each company depends on specific factors, such as accident rates, financial results and fuel costs, and not just the general stock market cycle.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.