Kapitalo projects expensive money for a long period and sees the BC with no margin to reduce the rate

The manager Kapitalo Investimentos, considered one of the biggest independent names in the national market, started working with the hypothesis of high interest rates for a prolonged period in Brazil. According to InfoMoney, the house does not see room for the Central Bank to reduce interest rates in the current scenario. The information was given by Bernardo Feijó, operational director of Kapitalo.

This reading is accompanied by a downward review of the economic picture. According to the same report, following the results of the presidential election, Kapitalo downgraded its estimates for the country's performance. Taken together, the two readings indicate that money should remain expensive for longer.

Feijó condensed the perspective into three points: interest rates should remain high in the country, the BC would not be able to cut them and this level tends to last for a long period of time. At the same time, the manager gave more weight to applications outside the country, seeking alternatives across borders.

In the same period, the debate on monetary policy gained another chapter. According to Estadão, the Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, assessed that André Lara Resende's suggestion to put a cap on interest rates is still embryonic and has flaws. Lara Resende, who helped control hyperinflation in Brazil, advocates testing traditional monetary policy.

The clash of positions matters because it changes expectations about the cost of money. When the discussion about the conduct of interest rates is divided between postponed cuts and proposed rule changes, the pricing of fixed and variable income assets tends to reflect this uncertainty.

What changes for the investor

For those who operate the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, the scenario described by Kapitalo suggests that the interest rate may remain high for longer, which keeps fixed income attractive and makes credit more expensive for companies and families. Growth stocks, widely present on the Nasdaq, tend to be more sensitive to high interest rates for long periods, because their profits are more distant in time. The expansion of the focus abroad shows that the manager is seeking diversification outside the country. This article does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation or price forecast; each reader must evaluate their own risk profile.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.