Interest rates at 13.75%: market already sees pause in Selic cuts

Most analysts expect the Central Bank to maintain the basic interest rate at 13.75% per year at the next Copom meeting, the body responsible for interest rate decisions. According to Money Times, a possible freeze would end the sequence of reductions that began in March.

The downward movement has been the main guiding principle of monetary policy since March. A stop in the base rate would signal that the reduction in interest rates has reached, at least for now, a pause point, something that weighs on the cost of credit, the return on fixed income and the appetite for shares.

Abroad, the electoral issue also gained prominence. According to Money Times, the Democratic party secured a majority in both houses of the American Congress, the House and the Senate, in the mid-term vote counted on Tuesday (3). Even in places considered unlikely, such as Iowa, Texas and South Carolina, the party emerged victorious.

On the stock exchanges, the Asian ones closed without a single direction on Wednesday (4). Oil rose in the same session, on a volatile day, while the market remains attentive to the moves that the White House will make in the face of the conflict with Iran.

In the balance sheet, RD Saúde (RADL3) recorded, in 3Q2026, R$439.1 million in adjusted net gains, an increase of 9.2% in the annual comparison. According to Money Times, the result was driven by sales and lower financial expenses, but margins remain under pressure.

Latam also released its third quarter balance sheet. Its net profit totaled US$441 million, a 16.3% jump compared to the US$379 million recorded in 3Q2025. Operating revenue reached US$4.567 billion, increasing 18.4%. On the other hand, adjusted EBITDA fell 4.7%, to US$1.095 billion, and the margin lost 5.8 percentage points, ending September at 24.0%, according to Money Times.

Fitch changed the Petrobras (PETR4) framework: it confirmed the long-term ratings, in foreign and local currency, at the BB level with a stable trend, and maintained the national rating at AAA (bra). The agency also raised the state-owned company's intrinsic assessment from bbb to bbb+, taking into account the quality of management, the conduct of corporate control, cash generation and the reduced level of debt. According to Fitch, the ratings remain linked to the Brazilian sovereign, as the government holds 50.3% of the company's votes.

Practical impact for those applying

If the Selic remains at 13.75%, the cost of money tends to remain high for longer, which requires attention from those who have exposure to indebted companies and compare variable income with fixed income. The case of RD Saúde, which benefited from lower financial expenses, shows how the cost of money appears in the companies' results. For those who follow Nasdaq, the dollar and interest rates, the external scenario, with the American election and the tension in oil, adds variables to the Copom's decision. This content is informative: it does not suggest buying or selling assets and does not make price projections. The direction of the market will depend on what the Copom communicates and the indicators released from now on.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.