Projected gap for 2027 reaches 1% of GDP and government is considering taxing LCI and LCA

According to Gazeta do Povo, the Lula government is analyzing the collection of IOF on LCI, LCA, CRI, CRA and encouraged debentures, all of which are currently exempt. Those who invest in these securities do not pay IOF or IR on income, a benefit that the economic team sees as an opening in uncollected revenue of approximately R$33 billion annually. The discussions took place shortly after the re-election of Lula (PT), in a scenario in which management calculates a negative balance of 1% of GDP for 2027.

The context also involves consumption taxation. According to the same report, the TCU approved a calculation that sets the CBS reference rate at 11.3%, a value higher than the 9.5% predicted by the market. If the Senate ratifies this rate by December, the tax burden on goods and services could reach 30%, including state and municipal taxes.

There is also the Selective Tax, whose scope includes tobacco, alcoholic beverages, soft drinks, polluting cars, mineral exploration and lottery games. The government's forecast was to collect close to R$42 billion from the tax in 2027, however the regulatory schedule was postponed and the estimated amount is at risk.

In the field of expenses, Senate technicians calculate an additional R$40 billion resulting from electoral commitments that were not included in the initial budget piece. This list includes the correction of Bolsa Família, the amnesty for debts for micro-entrepreneurs and the creation of new programs aimed at students.

The strategy mentioned in the report combines two instruments: expanding taxation and cutting tax benefits granted to companies, with the aim of meeting tax targets. The same investigation recalls that the legislation requires 90 days' notice for any tax increase, so changes of this type would not come into force immediately.

The central point of the debate is how the government intends to close the 2027 account, whether by increasing revenue, controlling spending or a combination of the two. The answers are not yet defined.

What changes for the investor

If the IOF is levied on LCI, LCA, CRI, CRA and incentivized debentures, the net return on these securities tends to fall for those who hold them, which can change the relative attractiveness of these investments compared to other fixed income investments. For companies and sectors that finance projects with these instruments, the cost of funding may rise. The combination of a higher tax burden and projected deficit keeps interest rates and exchange rates on the radar of those who invest, but developments will depend on government decisions and proceedings in the Senate, with no immediate effect period.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.