Democrats win Congress and open a loophole for countries that question Trump's tariffs

United States voters gave Democrats control of Congress in the presidential midterm legislative dispute, held on Tuesday (3/11). According to Reuters, the party won a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives, a political setback for President Donald Trump.

According to InfoMoney, the dominant interpretation is that the public punished the government, mainly for the tariffs and the military confrontation with Iran, seen as responsible for persistent inflation. Trump took office with the promise of reopening jobs, strengthening the industrial sector and raising the population's quality of life, and the result will now be determined based on this promise.

Ana Carolina Marson, who teaches International Relations at FESPSP, assesses that tariffs and the confrontation with Iran have made life more expensive and increased discontent with the government. She addressed the topic on Mapa de Risco, an InfoMoney policy program, when discussing the mid-term legislative dispute in the United States.

Outside American borders, the effect may be different. Reuters assesses that the defeat could encourage other countries to resist Trump's tariffs, which would give the president's domestic setback additional weight in trade negotiations.

In the case of Brazil, Times Brasil treats the Democratic victory as a scenario that has not yet been confirmed, capable of altering American economic policy and trade relations with the country. Economist Roberto Giannetti da Fonseca, a specialist in foreign trade, assessed that an opposition majority in the Legislature tends to monitor international decisions and the American government's protectionism agenda.

What is at stake now is how much space Congress will have to slow down or shape the government's trade agenda, at a time when the cost of living has become the main barometer of dissatisfaction with management.

What changes for the investor

For those who invest and operate, the central point is predictability. If the opposition Congress manages to monitor the White House's protectionism, the pace of new tariffs could be reduced or reconfigured, although this effect will depend on how the issue evolves. As tariffs appear among the causes of inflation pointed out by voters, the commercial discussion is also linked to the cost of living and, consequently, to interest rate decisions and the behavior of the dollar. Companies exposed to foreign trade, including Brazilian ones, tend to closely monitor any change in this agenda. This report does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation and does not project quotations.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.