US elections, Selic decision and Itaú balance sheet define this Wednesday’s trading session

Wednesday (4) brings together the main focuses of the Brazilian and American markets. In Brazil, the Copom decides the Selic, and the predominant expectation is that it will be maintained. Among the 21 institutions interviewed by Money Times, 16 see the rate at 13.75% per year. The other five foresee a reduction of 0.25 p.p., taking it to 13.50%, a bet by ASA, XP, Inter, BB Investimentos and Bradesco. For the end of 2026, the most common projection remains 13.75%.

Across the ocean, the focus is on the American midterm vote, which ends on Tuesday. Wall Street closed mixed the day before. According to InfoMoney, Ryan Detrick, from Carson Group and contributor to CNBC, estimates that the market may calm down after the election.

The electoral race also revived an expression with a peculiar history. According to Your Money, lame duck emerged in the 18th century, on English soil, as a nickname for broke traders who abandoned the Stock Exchange. On the American side, the label took on another meaning and began to affect leaders in the final stages of their terms, whether heads of the Executive, governors or members of the Legislature, who no longer had influence.

On the companies agenda, RD Saúde (RADL3) opens this Wednesday's list, alongside POMO4 (Marcopolo), BBSE3 (BB Seguridade) and ITUB4 (Itaú), according to InfoMoney. PRIO (PRIO3), Minerva (BEEF3), Axia Energia (AXIA3), Vibra (VBBR4), C&A (CEAB3) and Riachuelo (RIAA3) also publish balance sheets today.

In corporate news, Alupar (ALUP11) won a project in Chile, with an estimated investment of US$85 million. Aeris (AERI3) filed a request for extrajudicial recovery, and Yduqs (YDUQ3) advances in the merger with Afya, with a meeting called for the 25th. Abroad, Apple released a quarterly balance sheet below expectations, and oil fell after a sharp fall the day before, amid new US military action against Iran.

Practical impacts for those who invest

The Copom decision is the most important event for those who follow interest and fixed income, because it defines the economy's interest rate reference. If maintenance prevails, as most expect, the scenario will continue with high interest rates, which usually weighs on the cost of credit and more indebted companies. A cut, defended by five institutions, would indicate a more benign reading of inflation. For those who defend fiscal responsibility, it is worth remembering that the trajectory of interest rates also depends on public accounts, which is why the Copom statement must be read carefully. Abroad, volatility linked to elections and the reaction to balance sheets like Apple's could influence Nasdaq and the dollar in the short term, without this indicating the direction of prices.

Automatically translated from Portuguese.