Treasury sees debt at 83.7% of GDP in 2026 and peak postponed to 2030
Official document records a 5.1 percentage point increase in gross debt in one year, and high interest rates and Selic will weigh more heavily on the budget until 2030
BY THE X-TRADER NEWS NEWSROOM · REPORTING FROM DIÁRIO DO PODER · 2 MIN
According to Diário do Poder, the Treasury projects that the general government's gross debt will reach 83.7% of GDP at the end of 2026, compared to 78.6% in 2025. The increase of 5.1 percentage points in a single year appears in an official document published on November 3, and is the starting point for understanding the message of public accounts.
The scenario also appears in other sources. Data from the Central Bank show gross debt of 82.9% of GDP, or R$11.1 trillion, in September. The CNI had already estimated 83.7% for the same horizon in the Economic Report of October 28th. Before that, a document dated June 30 predicted 83.5% of GDP for 2026 and a ceiling of 87.9% for 2029.
The same survey estimates the peak of gross debt at 89.7% of GDP in 2030. In other words, according to Diário do Poder, the fiscal peak was postponed and is higher than previously predicted.
The cost of money directly weighs on this account. Nominal interest totaled R$1.205 trillion in 12 months, equivalent to 8.99% of GDP. According to the survey, each 1 percentage point of Selic adds R$78.3 billion in spending in 2027, and the accumulated amount from 2027 to 2030 reaches R$476 billion.
On the revenue side, each 1% of economic growth adds R$16.6 billion, and each 1 percentage point of inflation, R$15 billion. Mario Sergio Telles states that the primary deficit combined with high interest rates increases the debt by more than 5 percentage points of GDP in one year. The result is a balance sensitive to three variables at the same time: interest, growth and inflation.
What changes for the investor
For those who follow the stock market, Nasdaq, interest rates and the dollar, the central point is that the debt trajectory tends to enter into the pricing of fiscal risk, especially as the interest bill grows along with the debt. If the estimate of 89.7% of GDP in 2030 is confirmed, the sensitivity to each movement in the Selic and to any revision of official projections will be closely monitored. This article does not provide a purchase or sale recommendation and does not project prices: it records the official estimate and the sensitivities indicated, and it is up to the reader to assess the impact on their own portfolio.
Automatically translated from Portuguese.
